Lisbon, February 19 - The five-week delay in the vaccination plan to immunize the population against SARS-CoV-2 could cost Europe's coffers around € 90 billion, if the pace of the process does not accelerate, estimates Euler Hermes, the world leader in insurance of credits and shareholder of COSEC - Companhia de Seguro de Credits, SA
According to the study “Vaccination delay to cost Europe EUR90bn in 2021”, to achieve the European Commission's goal of vaccinating 70% of the adult population by the summer of 2021, the process will have to be six times faster than it has been so far. At current speed, it will only be possible to achieve group immunity by the end of 2022. In Denmark, for example, only 5% of the population received at least one dose of the vaccine. These figures contrast with the 14.4% recorded in the United Kingdom and the 9.4% recorded in the United States of America.
So far, the costs accumulated during these five weeks of delay have already exceeded the equivalent of the € 50 billion total of the European Union Recovery Fund for 2021. Vaccination, economists explain, is the key to economic recovery. Thus, "a first black quarter" is anticipated, still marked by high restrictions on the activity of economies and a race to vaccination, and, therefore, by the recession, due to the worsening of the health situation, especially in Europe and Latin America. The effects of vaccination of the world population against Covid-19 will only have a significant impact on the economy in the second half of the year. Each week of economic restrictions weighs -0.4 percentage points in quarterly GDP growth.
Portugal: insolvencies to rise 23% in 2021
According to the analysis recently released by Ludovic Subran, chief economist at Allianz and Euler Hermes, at the annual meeting of Mediators COSEC, during the first three months of the year Portugal will register a drop of -5.2% of the national GDP. However, in the following two quarters the trend is expected to reverse, with the economy growing 3.9% in the second quarter and 5.5% in the third.
At this event, which brought COSEC's Business Partners together in a 2021 balance sheet and strategy session, Ludovic Subran pointed out that Portugal will see an increase in the number of insolvencies, after, in the last year, these have remained constant due to extraordinary measures to support the economy. Ludovic Subran predicts that, in 2021, there will be an increase of 23% (in line with the global figure) and 11% in 2022. In the destinations to which Portugal exports (with Spain, France, Germany and the United Kingdom among the most prevailing), the evolution should be identical. In the last year, there was a decrease of 7%, but this year the increase will be very significant, of 23%. In 2022, the increase is expected to be less pronounced, 14%.
Lisbon, February 19 - The five-week delay in the vaccination plan to immunize the population against SARS-CoV-2 could cost Europe's coffers around € 90 billion, if the pace of the process does not accelerate, estimates Euler Hermes, the world leader in insurance of credits and shareholder of COSEC - Companhia de Seguro de Credits, SA
According to the study “Vaccination delay to cost Europe EUR90bn in 2021”, to achieve the European Commission's goal of vaccinating 70% of the adult population by the summer of 2021, the process will have to be six times faster than it has been so far. At current speed, it will only be possible to achieve group immunity by the end of 2022. In Denmark, for example, only 5% of the population received at least one dose of the vaccine. These figures contrast with the 14.4% recorded in the United Kingdom and the 9.4% recorded in the United States of America.
So far, the costs accumulated during these five weeks of delay have already exceeded the equivalent of the € 50 billion total of the European Union Recovery Fund for 2021. Vaccination, economists explain, is the key to economic recovery. Thus, "a first black quarter" is anticipated, still marked by high restrictions on the activity of economies and a race to vaccination, and, therefore, by the recession, due to the worsening of the health situation, especially in Europe and Latin America. The effects of vaccination of the world population against Covid-19 will only have a significant impact on the economy in the second half of the year. Each week of economic restrictions weighs -0.4 percentage points in quarterly GDP growth.
Portugal: insolvencies to rise 23% in 2021
According to the analysis recently released by Ludovic Subran, chief economist at Allianz and Euler Hermes, at the annual meeting of Mediators COSEC, during the first three months of the year Portugal will register a drop of -5.2% of the national GDP. However, in the following two quarters the trend is expected to reverse, with the economy growing 3.9% in the second quarter and 5.5% in the third.
At this event, which brought COSEC's Business Partners together in a 2021 balance sheet and strategy session, Ludovic Subran pointed out that Portugal will see an increase in the number of insolvencies, after, in the last year, these have remained constant due to extraordinary measures to support the economy. Ludovic Subran predicts that, in 2021, there will be an increase of 23% (in line with the global figure) and 11% in 2022. In the destinations to which Portugal exports (with Spain, France, Germany and the United Kingdom among the most prevailing), the evolution should be identical. In the last year, there was a decrease of 7%, but this year the increase will be very significant, of 23%. In 2022, the increase is expected to be less pronounced, 14%.
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