Lisbon, March 22 - During 2021, long-term unemployment in the Eurozone may reach 6.6 million in the third quarter, representing an increase of about 38% compared to the Covid pandemic. -19 (4.8 million), expecting a slight decrease to 6.5 million at the end of 2021, estimates Euler Hermes, the world leader in credit insurance and a shareholder in COSEC - Companhia de Seguro de Creditos, SA
The “Covid-19 one year on: 1.8 million additional long-term unemployed in Europe” study, published on 5 March, suggests that, in view of the expectation of a slow and gradual economic recovery, along with a timid recovery in the labor markets Eurozone over the next year, there is an increased risk that the cyclical shock in the labor market will become structural, with unemployment figures stabilizing at a high level.
COSEC shareholder analysis reveals that, in total, there are now 13.7 million unemployed in Europe, 1.8 million since February 2020, the beginning of the pandemic. This latter figure, although considerable, does not take into account the “invisible unemployed” - those who are not registered as unemployed with the official authorities of each country. It is also necessary to consider that - and despite the sharp drop in economic growth in all countries - the expected increase in unemployment has been significantly mitigated by the programs to support the preservation of employment implemented by Governments. Euler Hermes estimates that, in the four largest economies in the Eurozone alone, these programs have protected 25 million jobs in the immediate post-pandemic.
Portugal: uncertainty about the impact of Covid-19 on job destruction.
The Banco BPI study, also a shareholder of COSEC, published on March 3, reveals that, in the case of Portugal, in January this year, the impact of the pandemic increased the unemployment rate to 7.2%, contrary to the trend of drop in previous months. According to the analysis, it is an increase of 2.7% of the unemployed population compared to the same period last year, which registered an unemployment rate of 6.8% - values in line with those verified before the emergence of the pandemic.
This study also shows that the employed population fell in January compared to the same month last year (-3.5%), a trend that has been observed for 12 consecutive months. At the same time, and for the second consecutive month, employment fell in a chain (-1.7%, or -79,000 individuals), widening the gap in relation to that recorded before the pandemic (-3.1% compared to February 2020). In the first month of the year, the employed population reached a total of 4 687 200 people, down from the figure recorded in February 2020 by around 151 400 people.
The aggravation of the consequences caused by the pandemic, the slow vaccination process and the uncertainties of companies regarding the future are the main causes pointed out for this increase. The same study states that employment support measures are being a crucial support for the labor market, but predicts that the end of them may result in an unemployment rate of 9.1% at the end of 2021, and this scenario may be mitigated by the extension and reinforcement of measures to support employment and the economy, meanwhile announced by the Portuguese Government.
Lisbon, March 22 - During 2021, long-term unemployment in the Eurozone may reach 6.6 million in the third quarter, representing an increase of about 38% compared to the Covid pandemic. -19 (4.8 million), expecting a slight decrease to 6.5 million at the end of 2021, estimates Euler Hermes, the world leader in credit insurance and a shareholder in COSEC - Companhia de Seguro de Creditos, SA
The “Covid-19 one year on: 1.8 million additional long-term unemployed in Europe” study, published on 5 March, suggests that, in view of the expectation of a slow and gradual economic recovery, along with a timid recovery in the labor markets Eurozone over the next year, there is an increased risk that the cyclical shock in the labor market will become structural, with unemployment figures stabilizing at a high level.
COSEC shareholder analysis reveals that, in total, there are now 13.7 million unemployed in Europe, 1.8 million since February 2020, the beginning of the pandemic. This latter figure, although considerable, does not take into account the “invisible unemployed” - those who are not registered as unemployed with the official authorities of each country. It is also necessary to consider that - and despite the sharp drop in economic growth in all countries - the expected increase in unemployment has been significantly mitigated by the programs to support the preservation of employment implemented by Governments. Euler Hermes estimates that, in the four largest economies in the Eurozone alone, these programs have protected 25 million jobs in the immediate post-pandemic.
Portugal: uncertainty about the impact of Covid-19 on job destruction.
The Banco BPI study, also a shareholder of COSEC, published on March 3, reveals that, in the case of Portugal, in January this year, the impact of the pandemic increased the unemployment rate to 7.2%, contrary to the trend of drop in previous months. According to the analysis, it is an increase of 2.7% of the unemployed population compared to the same period last year, which registered an unemployment rate of 6.8% - values in line with those verified before the emergence of the pandemic.
This study also shows that the employed population fell in January compared to the same month last year (-3.5%), a trend that has been observed for 12 consecutive months. At the same time, and for the second consecutive month, employment fell in a chain (-1.7%, or -79,000 individuals), widening the gap in relation to that recorded before the pandemic (-3.1% compared to February 2020). In the first month of the year, the employed population reached a total of 4 687 200 people, down from the figure recorded in February 2020 by around 151 400 people.
The aggravation of the consequences caused by the pandemic, the slow vaccination process and the uncertainties of companies regarding the future are the main causes pointed out for this increase. The same study states that employment support measures are being a crucial support for the labor market, but predicts that the end of them may result in an unemployment rate of 9.1% at the end of 2021, and this scenario may be mitigated by the extension and reinforcement of measures to support employment and the economy, meanwhile announced by the Portuguese Government.
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