Lisbon, 17 November – Since February, the world has seen an unprecedented rise in the numbers of the inactive population, with access to state measures of social support implemented in the context of the pandemic crisis, not considered in the official unemployment data. According to Euler Hermes, shareholder of COSEC - Companhia de Seguro de Creditos, today there are more than 30 million 'invisible' unemployed people, who are not being taken into account in the projections for the evolution of domestic consumption, and which may on a global scale, a monthly contraction of this indicator by around € 12 billion.
According to the study “30 million unemployed go missing and with them USD14bn of monthly consumption”, which analyzes 25 OECD countries and emerging markets, the number of 'invisible' unemployed in official statistics since February 2020 varies, for example, between the 40 thousand in Portugal, 320 thousand in France, 350 thousand in Italy, 160 thousand in Ireland, 1.5 million in Spain, 5.5 million in the United States of America, up to 13 million in Brazil.
Thus, economists estimate that in some developed countries - such as Spain - the real unemployment rate reaches almost 6 percentage points higher than the official rate. In this specific case, it would be equivalent to a real unemployment rate of 21.9%, placing the neighboring country in the third place on the list of those with the greatest real contraction in domestic consumption - € 927 million per month, behind the United States and Brazil. The analysis estimates similar figures in Ireland (+6 percentage points), which correspond to a real unemployment rate of 11.4%, but a lower impact on consumption, of € 166 million.
In this estimate, Portugal has 40 thousand 'invisible' unemployed, which corresponds to an inactive population rate, which can translate into the real unemployment rate, of + 0.7 percentage points above the official one and an additional impact of around € 15 million monthly in consumption. The situation in Portugal is in line with that seen, for example, in Italy and Canada, where economists estimate that these 'invisible unemployed' add +1 percentage point to the official unemployment rate (with a monthly impact on the consumption of € 233 million and € 148 million, respectively).
Lisbon, 17 November – Since February, the world has seen an unprecedented rise in the numbers of the inactive population, with access to state measures of social support implemented in the context of the pandemic crisis, not considered in the official unemployment data. According to Euler Hermes, shareholder of COSEC - Companhia de Seguro de Creditos, today there are more than 30 million 'invisible' unemployed people, who are not being taken into account in the projections for the evolution of domestic consumption, and which may on a global scale, a monthly contraction of this indicator by around € 12 billion.
According to the study “30 million unemployed go missing and with them USD14bn of monthly consumption”, which analyzes 25 OECD countries and emerging markets, the number of 'invisible' unemployed in official statistics since February 2020 varies, for example, between the 40 thousand in Portugal, 320 thousand in France, 350 thousand in Italy, 160 thousand in Ireland, 1.5 million in Spain, 5.5 million in the United States of America, up to 13 million in Brazil.
Thus, economists estimate that in some developed countries - such as Spain - the real unemployment rate reaches almost 6 percentage points higher than the official rate. In this specific case, it would be equivalent to a real unemployment rate of 21.9%, placing the neighboring country in the third place on the list of those with the greatest real contraction in domestic consumption - € 927 million per month, behind the United States and Brazil. The analysis estimates similar figures in Ireland (+6 percentage points), which correspond to a real unemployment rate of 11.4%, but a lower impact on consumption, of € 166 million.
In this estimate, Portugal has 40 thousand 'invisible' unemployed, which corresponds to an inactive population rate, which can translate into the real unemployment rate, of + 0.7 percentage points above the official one and an additional impact of around € 15 million monthly in consumption. The situation in Portugal is in line with that seen, for example, in Italy and Canada, where economists estimate that these 'invisible unemployed' add +1 percentage point to the official unemployment rate (with a monthly impact on the consumption of € 233 million and € 148 million, respectively).
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